Mumbai: North Maharashtra, comprising the Nashik, Jalgaon, Dhule, and Nandurbar districts, has long been a stronghold for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Traditionally a region that bolstered the party’s political success in the state, this area represents a significant electoral ground with its six Lok Sabha seats and 35 Assembly constituencies. However, as Maharashtra heads into its Assembly elections, the BJP faces stiff challenges in retaining its dominance. With rising discontent among farmers and the consolidation of Muslim and Maratha voters, the political landscape in north Maharashtra is evolving rapidly, and the BJP is working to reclaim lost ground.
BJP’s Past Stronghold and Current Challenges
For decades, the BJP benefited from a well-established Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) network in north Maharashtra, which helped solidify its electoral base. The region played a crucial role in the party’s ascendancy within the state. However, despite its historical strength, the BJP is approaching the upcoming Assembly elections cautiously. The party is fully aware that recent challenges, such as the farmers’ unrest and voter realignments among Muslims and Marathas, could pose a serious threat to its dominance.
In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP secured victories in 13 out of the 35 constituencies in north Maharashtra. The then-undivided Shiv Sena won six, while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) took seven seats, the Congress captured five, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won two. The remaining two seats went to Independents. Fast forward to the recent Lok Sabha elections, and the BJP’s dominance was visibly shaken. The party managed to win only two out of the six Lok Sabha seats, with the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena (UBT) each picking up seats. The sharp decline compared to five years earlier, when the BJP had claimed five out of the six seats, was a clear indication of the growing challenges.
Farmer Unrest and the Onion Export Issue
One of the critical issues that has generated significant unrest in north Maharashtra is the plight of farmers, particularly those involved in onion farming. North Maharashtra contributes around 30% of the country’s onion production, making it a vital agricultural region. However, recent government policies have angered farmers, creating discontent that threatens to impact the upcoming Assembly elections.
In December 2023, the Narendra Modi-led central government imposed an export ban on onions to stabilize domestic supplies and control prices. This followed a 40% export duty on onions, which was introduced earlier. The export ban continued until May 2024, during the Lok Sabha elections, and although it was lifted eventually, the damage to farmer sentiment was already done. In an attempt to placate the farmers, the government later reduced the export duty on onions from 40% to 20% in September 2024. Despite these measures, many farmers in north Maharashtra remain disgruntled, viewing the government’s flip-flop on onion exports as a mishandling of their livelihoods.
Sharad Pawar, a veteran politician and leader of the NCP, has strategically capitalized on the farmers’ unrest, leveraging it to benefit the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which includes the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar), and the Congress. The BJP’s success in this election will depend on its ability to mitigate the anger among farmers and convince them that the corrective measures taken by the government, such as reducing export duties and providing free electricity, will genuinely improve their situation.
Maratha Quota Agitation and Its Impact
Another key factor influencing the political dynamics in north Maharashtra is the ongoing Maratha quota agitation. Led by activist Manoj Jarange Patil, the agitation has increasingly targeted the BJP, complicating the party’s efforts to regain lost ground. The Maratha community, a politically significant group in Maharashtra, has been demanding reservations in government jobs and education, and their discontent with the BJP’s handling of this issue could be a determining factor in the elections.
BJP MLA and state Rural Development Minister Girish Mahajan, a prominent leader from north Maharashtra, remains optimistic. Mahajan, who has won the Jamner Assembly seat six consecutive times since 1995, believes that the government’s recent initiatives, such as reducing export duties on onions and providing free electricity to farmers, will help the BJP make a strong showing in the region. However, the extent to which these measures will alleviate farmer and Maratha anger remains to be seen.
Religious Polarization: A Key BJP Strategy
In addition to addressing the concerns of farmers and Marathas, the BJP has intensified its focus on religious polarization as a campaign strategy in north Maharashtra. Nashik, one of the key districts in this region, is a major Hindu pilgrimage center, and the party has been using its Hindutva agenda to mobilize Hindu voters. In the last six months, slogans like “Hindus are in danger” have been prominently featured in the BJP’s rhetoric, aimed at countering what the party perceives as a consolidation of Muslim voters in favor of the opposition MVA alliance.
The BJP’s Deputy Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis, recently escalated the narrative of religious polarization by warning of “vote jihad.” Fadnavis pointed to the results in the Dhule Lok Sabha seat, where despite leading in five out of six Assembly segments, BJP candidate Subash Bhamre lost by a narrow margin to Congress’s Shobha Bacchav. The BJP attributed this loss to the significant number of votes Bacchav received from the Muslim-majority Malegaon Central segment. While election data does not fully support the BJP’s claims, the party appears determined to push the narrative of religious polarization to consolidate Hindu votes.
In August, a controversy erupted when religious leader Mahant Ramgiri Maharaj made anti-Islam remarks. Although FIRs were filed against him, no immediate action was taken, and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde later shared a stage with Ramgiri Maharaj, further inflaming tensions. BJP MLA Nitesh Rane also stirred controversy by threatening to “enter mosques to beat up Muslims” if any disrespect was shown towards Ramgiri Maharaj.
The Role of Prominent Leaders
Several high-profile politicians from north Maharashtra are expected to play pivotal roles in the upcoming Assembly elections. Eknath Khadse, a veteran NCP (Sharad Pawar) leader, is one such figure. Khadse, who was with the BJP for over four decades before joining the NCP in 2020, campaigned for BJP candidates in the recent Lok Sabha elections, including his daughter-in-law, Raksha Khadse, who won the Raver parliamentary seat. Despite speculations about his return to the BJP, Khadse remains aligned with the NCP and is likely to play a key role in the region’s electoral dynamics.
Other prominent leaders include Chhagan Bhujbal of the NCP (Ajit Pawar), who has represented the Yeola constituency since 2004, and Shiv Sena ministers Dada Bhuse and Gulabrao Patil, both of whom are expected to contest from Malegaon Outer and Jalgaon Rural, respectively.
The upcoming Assembly elections in north Maharashtra will be a litmus test for the BJP’s ability to navigate multiple challenges. The unrest among farmers, the consolidation of Muslim and Maratha voters, and the influence of prominent regional leaders will all play crucial roles in shaping the outcome. The BJP’s strategy, which combines efforts to address economic grievances with an emphasis on religious polarization, reflects its determination to reclaim lost ground in a region that has been a critical part of its political foundation. However, whether these strategies will be enough to overcome the opposition’s growing influence remains to be seen, as the political battle for north Maharashtra intensifies.
