Single-Phase Voting on February 5, Results on February 8
The Election Commission announced the Delhi Assembly elections on January 7. All 70 constituencies will go to polls in a single phase on February 5, with results declared on February 8. With the announcement, the Model Code of Conduct is now in effect across the capital and will remain until February 10, the conclusion of the election process.
Compared to 2020, this election cycle is four days shorter, spanning 35 days. In the last assembly elections, the process lasted 39 days.
Voter Base Grows by 8 Lakh in 5 Years
Since the 2020 elections, the voter base in Delhi has increased by 8 lakh, reaching 1.55 crore. In 2020, there were 1.47 crore voters, comprising 79.86 lakh men, 67.30 lakh women, and 1,176 third-gender voters. The current electorate includes 83.49 lakh men, 71.74 lakh women, and 1,261 third-gender voters.
AAP’s Meteoric Rise Since Its Inception
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was founded on October 2, 2012, and within a year, it contested its first assembly elections on December 4, 2013. Results on December 8 saw AAP securing 29.49% of the vote share and winning 28 seats. Party leader Arvind Kejriwal defeated three-term Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by 26,000 votes in the New Delhi constituency, securing 53.8% of the votes compared to Dikshit’s 22.4%.
In just two years, AAP increased its vote share to 54%, establishing itself as a dominant force in Delhi politics.
BJP’s Vote Share Rises but Seats Decline
In the December 2013 assembly elections, BJP emerged as the largest party with 33.07% of the vote and 31 seats, falling five short of a majority. AAP formed the government with Congress’s support, but it lasted less than two months, leading to a year of President’s Rule.
The 2015 elections saw BJP’s vote share drop slightly to 32.19%, resulting in a dramatic seat loss, with the party winning just 3 seats. By 2020, BJP’s vote share increased by 5.44% to 38.51%, but the seat tally rose to only 8.
Congress Declines from Dominance to Near-Oblivion
Congress, which dominated Delhi politics from 1998 to 2013 with three consecutive victories, suffered a severe decline in 2015, failing to win a single seat and receiving just 9.65% of the votes. In 2013, it had won 8 seats with a 24.55% vote share. By 2020, Congress’s vote share dropped further to a mere 4.26%, cementing its diminishing relevance in the capital.
Swing Voters Hold the Key to Power
Delhi’s elections often occur around nine months after Lok Sabha polls, yet voter behavior varies significantly. Analysis of the past three assembly and Lok Sabha elections reveals that approximately 18% swing voters determine the outcome.
Swing voters, unaligned with any party, shift their allegiance based on the prevailing socio-political climate. For instance, in 2014, BJP won all 7 Lok Sabha seats and led in 60 of 70 assembly segments. However, in the 2015 assembly polls, AAP swept 67 seats, leaving BJP with only 3. Similarly, BJP repeated its clean sweep in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, leading in 65 assembly segments, but AAP rebounded in the 2020 assembly elections with 62 seats.
Contrasting Trends Between BJP and AAP
BJP consistently performs strongly in Lok Sabha elections, securing all 7 seats in 2014, 2019, and 2024. AAP, on the other hand, dominates assembly elections, achieving landslide victories with nearly the same vote share BJP garners in general elections. Meanwhile, Congress has struggled to cross a 10% vote share in Delhi assembly polls since 2013.
As Delhi heads to the polls again, the battle remains between AAP’s assembly dominance and BJP’s Lok Sabha strength, with swing voters likely to play a pivotal role.
